Alberta’s Groundhog Day budget promises more of the same, forever

One of my family’s favourite movies is Groundhog Day.

In this 1993 classic, a self-centered weatherman named Phil (Bill Murray) finds himself in a time loop. He disingenuously promises, and pleads, and postures, hoping to snap the loop. But he eventually comes to the realization that he is doomed to repeat the same day, doing the same things, for eternity. It isn’t until he fundamentally changes as a person that Phil can break the loop.

You can forgive Albertans for recognizing similarities between this plot and the provincial government’s irresponsible budgeting.

In 2019, when the UCP won its first general election, it was widely recognized that NDP spending levels (then under $60 billion) were not sustainable. I was at the front of the line calling for spending restraint. The UCP promised change.

But nothing changed. The 2024 budget, released this week, calls for $73 billion in spending. When you include population growth and inflation, spending remains at NDP levels.

Fed up with Jason Kenney’s Ontario-style big spending policies, Albertans expected change under Danielle Smith, who took the reins as Premier in October of 2022.

But once again, nothing changed.

Shortly after Smith took the reins as Premier, 2024 spending was estimated to hold steady at slightly over $64 billion. Somehow, the government missed this projection by $9 billion (12 per cent) in just two years.

Worse yet, the Alberta’s Groundhog Day spending plan calls for $76 billion in spending by 2026. If the government misses this new target by another 12 per cent, it means $85 billion in total spending. At those levels, even with wartime oil pricing we are on the path back to systemic budget deficits.

But what of the government’s other budget promises?

In her televised address, the Premier promised to get Alberta off the resource revenue rollercoaster. It’s a pledge that has been repeated by virtually every Premier, in one form or another, since Lougheed. And, once again, it appears to be an empty promise. Where last year’s budget relied on $68 oil prices to reach balance, 2024’s relies on $73 oil.

But what of the promised tax cuts? In the 2023 election campaign, the government promised a sizeable income tax cut for working families. The budget puts that plan on ice, to be phased in over future years. Instead, the government is raising a variety of regressive fees and taxes, including a new land transfer tax. I guess when you’re addicted to spending, tax cuts are easy to push back… especially in a world where tomorrow never comes.

Alberta’s government is stuck in its own version of Groundhog Day. Every Premier promises to control spending, lower taxes, and end the dependence on resource revenue. But change never comes.

So what’s it going to take to snap Alberta out of its loop? Disingenuous promises, and pleading, and posturing haven’t worked. It’s going to take real, fundamental change.

If Phil the weatherman can rediscover human empathy, maybe Alberta’s government can restore fiscal responsibility.

That’s the Hollywood ending Albertans deserve.